2013年8月18日 星期日

10年半新股

舊文09年半新股http://realblog.zkiz.com/lgaim/30494,當時寫的是排除壞股找當中的好股,當時背景審查排除的包括:
海峽石油852  興業太陽能750  瑞金246  錦勝794  詩天1008  忠旺1333 旭光67  中金再生773  興利396   秦發866  琥珀90  志高449  承達2288  奧思知8325  金隅2009  中國生命8296  現代傳播72  中國全通663  中國中冶1618  利郎1234  永恆8351  澳優1717  江晨8305  永利1128  神冠829  寶龍1238  卡姆丹克712   恆大3333   高精密591  通天389   花樣年1777   中國森林930  富通465  佳兆業1638   春天百貨331  幻音8248  摩比947  勝利管道1080  粟米油1006  華昱1823  洪良946  星亮955  木匠837 
62隻股當中排除左42隻,不合格率68%頗高,今日來看,死得幾勻循

如果發現疑似GA數股,我們應該用甚麼取態呢?採取"唔通係阿姆斯特朗旋風噴射阿姆斯特朗砲嗎?完成求相當高呢"的無所謂態度,又或者使出艦長修正拳海扁大股東"連我爸爸也沒有打過我的說"的採取抵制態度?

今次同上次相反,排除過關的股找當中的GA數股,讀者的取態隨意就好

10年上市的股包括
俄鋁486 南戈壁1878 美克953 中駿1966 思嘉1863 珠江石化1938 煤機1683 瑞年2010 Z-Obee948 匯銀1280 中升881 飛克1998 遠東830 福和923 敏華1999 置富778 昂納877 L'Occitane973 朗生503 雷士2222 保誠2378 優源2268 泰坦2188 直通8337 泰豐873 卓亞8295 海東青2228 聯塑2128 創生325 超威951 華耐1020  國泰君安1788 齊合976 康守1019  天山2118 智能交通1900 農行1288 敏達936 星謙640 西水2233 耀才1428 廣汽2238 進業8356 三江2198 美即1633 暢豐1039 微創853 康哲867 博士蛙1698 碧生源926 內飾8321 桑德967 福源1682 海豐1308 麥斯達1021 創益2468 融創1918 金風2208 榮豐3683 永暉1733 麗悅2266 MM975 新天地956 賽晶580 富譽8269 博耳1685 鐵江1029 華地1700 新城鎮1278 四環460 環乳1007 友邦1299 雅士利1230 長興238 天侖1600 理士842 泓淋1087 歲寶312 大錳1091 熔盛1101 信貸8207 好孩子1086 金活1110 金滿堂8312 牧業1117 大明1090 金2099 十方1831 新源1048 賽得利1768 紛美468 正通1728 MI1555 世達1282 重銀3618 合生元1112大唐新1798 百富327 狗糧940 中聯1157 亨鑫1085 
味皇認為,GA數股就像遺傳病一樣,只要發現有發病基因,就很大機會發作,而搵發病基因甚至可以在未上市時睇招股書第2頁已經發現,因此要味皇現在就找出今年甚至明年上市的股票是否老十股都其實也不是難事,有發病基因就會發作,不管你信不信,反正我就信了,讀者像是看見萌物"長得那麼可愛,一定是男孩子"的抵觸,還是"只要可愛就算是男孩子也没關係"的接受,味皇也管不了,不過就現實來說,看起來萌的人型物體一般都是整過容的人造人

律師, 核數師,保薦人,味皇簡單地分為2類,澳門系,馬會系,為簡化說明,代號設為12
澳門系指利用澳門的人脈上市,被上市的原因是因為澳門,而公司的人員有高機率反覆向澳門交稅,所以叫澳門系
馬會系指利用功能組別的人脈上市,由於多是馬主,所以叫馬會系,由於香港皇帝因XX某前高官而被趕出澳門,此系勢力大不如前,上市原因是單純的套現
也有些獨立人士,有各自的自的而找上投資銀行,主動上市集資,這部分是我們可以考慮購買的部分,但不是本文的目的
有些味皇未能確定關係,會留空,始終我不是萬能的
獨立核數師的信任度羅咸兵>安永>畢馬威>信永中和>德勤

第一波用南商的資料,可以查到現時的律師同核數師http://boc.quotepower.com/web/bochk/stocks_profile_corpinfo.jsp?lang=zh_TW&domain=NCBHK&rand=1632053162&lastLevel1Name=nav_stocks&lastStock=
保薦人要逐一在港交所查,功夫極多,留留最後先做

                           律師  核數  保薦          總結
俄鋁486               2                                   2                             
南戈壁1878                                                                                      
美克953                                                                         
中駿1966             1                                   1                            
思嘉1863                                                                           
珠江石化1938                                                                      
煤機1683            無資料                                                                
瑞年2010                                                                              
Z-Obee948           2       2                        2                               
匯銀1280                                                                              
中升881                                                                            
飛克1998                                                                            
遠東830                                                                              
福和923                                                                              
敏華1999                                                                              
置富778                                                                              
昂納877                                                                              
L'Occitane973                                                                              
朗生503                          2                        2                           
雷士2222                                                                              
保誠2378                                                                              
優源2268                                                                              
泰坦2188              1                                  1                              
直通8337                                                                              
泰豐873                                                                              
卓亞8295                                                                               
海東青2228                    2                         2                                 
 聯塑2128                                                                               
創生325           無資料                                                                    
超威951                                                                               
華耐1020              1                                   1                              
 國泰君安1788                                                                               
齊合976                                                                               
康守1019                                                                                
天山2118             2                                    2                              
智能交通1900                                                                               
農行1288                                                                               
敏達936                           2                        2                            
星謙640                2                                   2                            
西水2233                                                                               
耀才1428              2                                   2                             
廣汽2238                                                                               
進業8356              2        1                         1                                
三江2198              1                                   1                               
美即1633              1                                   1                              
暢豐1039              2                                   2                              
微創853                                                                               
康哲867                                                                               
博士蛙1698                    1                         1                                 
碧生源926                                                                               
內飾8321                         1                        1                             
桑德967                                                                              
福源1682              1                                   1                            
海豐1308              2                                   2                            
麥斯達1021                                                                               
創益2468                                                                               
融創1918              2                                   2                             
金風2208                                                                               
榮豐3683                                                                               
永暉1733                                                                              
麗悅2266                                                                               
MM975                                                                               
新天地956                                                                               
賽晶580                                                                               
富譽8269                      2                          2                               
博耳1685                                                                               
鐵江1029                                                                               
華地1700                                                                               
新城鎮1278                                                                               
四環460                                                                               
環乳1007                                                                               
友邦1299                                                                               
雅士利1230                                                                               
長興238                                                                               
天侖1600                                                                               
理士842                                                                              
泓淋1087                                                                               
歲寶312                                                                               
大錳1091                                                                               
熔盛1101                                                                               
信貸8207              2                                    2                             
好孩子1086          2                                    2                                
金活1110                           1                       1                            
金滿堂8312                       1                       1                                 
牧業1117                                                                               
大明1090                                                                               
金2099                                                                               
十方1831                                                                               
新源1048                                                                               
賽得利1768                                                                              
紛美468                                                                               
正通1728              1                                    1                             
MI1555                                                                               
世達1282             2                                      2                            
重銀3618                                                                               
合生元1112                                                                              
大唐新1798                                                                               
百富327                                                                               
狗糧940                                                                               
中聯1157                                                                               
亨鑫1085                                                                               


續上一篇,加埋保薦人
                           律師  核數  保薦          總結
俄鋁486               2                                   2                             
南戈壁1878                                                                                   
美克953                                   1               1                       
中駿1966             1                 2                1                            
思嘉1863                                                                           
珠江石化1938                                                                      
煤機1683            無資料                                                                
瑞年2010                                                                              
Z-Obee948           2       2       1               1                               
匯銀1280                                 2               2                            
中升881                                                                            
飛克1998                                                                            
遠東830                                                                              
福和923                                                                              
敏華1999                                  2             2                               
置富778                                                                              
昂納877                                    2              2                          
L'Occitane973                                                                              
朗生503                          2                        2                           
雷士2222                                                                              
保誠2378                                                                              
優源2268                                                                              
泰坦2188              1                  1              1                              
直通8337                                                                              
泰豐873                                     1              1                          
卓亞8295                                   1              1                               
海東青2228                    2                         2                                 
 聯塑2128                                                                               
創生325           無資料                                                                    
超威951                                      2             2                           
華耐1020              1                                   1                              
國泰君安1788                                                                               
齊合976                                                                               
康宏1019                                   1              1                                
天山2118             2                                    2                              
智能交通1900                                                                               
農行1288                                                                               
敏達936                           2         1             1                            
星謙640                2                    1             1                            
西水2233                                                                               
耀才1428              2                                   2                             
廣汽2238                                                                               
進業8356              2        1          1             1                                
三江2198              1                                   1                               
美即1633              1                                   1                              
暢豐1039              2                                   2                              
微創853                                                                               
康哲867                                                                               
博士蛙1698                    1                         1                                 
碧生源926                                                                               
內飾8321                         1         1             1                             
桑德967                                                                              
福源1682              1                    1             1                            
海豐1308              2                                   2                            
麥斯達1021                                                                               
創益2468                                                                               
融創1918              2                                   2                             
金風2208                                                                               
榮豐3683                                                                               
永暉1733                                                                              
麗悅2266                                                                               
MM975                                                                               
新天地956                                 2             2                                 
賽晶580                                                                               
富譽8269                      2           1            1                               
博耳1685                                                                               
鐵江1029                                                                               
華地1700                                                                               
新城鎮1278                                                                               
四環460                                                                               
環乳1007                                  2              2                               
友邦1299                                                                               
雅士利1230                                                                               
長興238                                    2              2                             
天侖1600                                                                               
理士842                                                                              
泓淋1087                                                                               
歲寶312                                    2              2                             
大錳1091                                                                               
熔盛1101                                                                               
信貸8207              2                                    2                             
好孩子1086          2                                    2                                
金活1110                         1                        1                            
金滿堂8312                     1        1              1                                 
牧業1117                                                                               
大明1090                                                                               
金2099                                                                               
十方1831                                     2            2                              
新源1048                                     1            1                               
賽得利1768                                                                              
紛美468                                                                               
正通1728              1                                    1                             
MI1555                                                                               
世達1282             2                                      2                            
重銀3618                                                                               
合生元1112                                                                              
大唐新1798                                                                               
百富327                                                                               
狗糧940                                       2              2                          
中聯1157                                                                               
亨鑫1085                                     1              1               

確認為澳門系的22間,馬會系的21間,排除率率左總數的43%,以上分析完全不涉及財務報表,僅僅涉及招股書的封面,要說的話類似卡睇面相一樣的東西,為針對"上市前"的分析,信則冇,不信則無,總之這類股不會在味皇的投資組合上再出現

澳門系由於涉及武裝力量,因此節操無下限,同時由於公司人員嗜好的問題,任何時候都會有抽資的需求,在抽資同時又要維持控制權,就會併發出無盡的創意,推動金融創新,澳門系可以理解為給紙皮餡的包子中加入金坷拉,由內在出發,至於活動範圍一般在方向報財經最中間化名果頁,生果冇睇過唔知
馬會系由於都是有頭有面的人,非常注重本人聲譽,即使作惡也會使用代理人,絕不輕易露出痛腳,因此直接出假數的機會不大,但由於上市目的是套現,因此只要有好價,就會有重復套現的傾向,更多時候是人為的制造好價,會大量使用洗腦方法,由於人員熱衷資本操作,因此不會太注重實務,馬會系可以理解為給饅頭一樣的包子打上金坷拉的廣告,由外在出,至於發活動範圍一般在方向報財經少顏色一格格實名果頁

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