2013年8月31日 星期六

克莉絲汀業績

最近返工D更唔係咁就寫文的時間,文章產量更加減少,而且味皇發覺自已的想像力似乎減退不少,中學時經常想到新發明品,現在就想不出,以前寫得出的怪奇題材,現在亦寫唔出,連中文字好多都唔記得點寫,看來味皇需要發更多的白日夢來刺激腦部,現在機械式的工作明顯不適合智力發展,將來味皇退休後除左去西灣釣魚外,似乎仲要考慮其他腦補活動
講返克莉絲汀,如果售出餅卡就當成盈利,並為其交稅,那麼兌換餅卡呢?把借錢當成盈利在味皇眼中非常可笑,但其他人受落,連稅局都癲返份,或許克莉絲汀一上市就潛水是對廣大股民來說是好事,起碼唔會中個頭埋去,由於同樣原理,兌換餅卡會當成虧損並可扣稅,如果上市前博命借餅卡比熟人,上市後熟人攞張餅卡返黎換錢,完全是可以預見的
只是退錢的規模有幾大呢?上一篇舊文提到,按其收購的子公司丹比的比例來說,克莉絲汀的合理按金應為3.6億左右,而現在為4.9億.比上年6.8億少近2億,以毛利率50%計,理論上兌換2億餅卡需1億的面粉等成本,但克莉絲汀的存貨成本機乎同上年一樣,因此99%可能性指出果2億餅卡是直接換返錢的,這是作為幫助上市集資的熟人的售後服務
雖然味皇一早預料克莉絲汀會兌現餅卡同賺唔到表面盈利,但兌換規模有幾大就無法預料,本著克莉絲汀分店多,常規保有的餅卡應該比丹比的比例多出不少,但一次2億已完全超出預料,不得不感嘆佢上市的準備有夠狠的,如果同丹比同比例的話,餅卞會再兌現多1.3億,2+1.3,剛好把IPO集的油脂刮清光
由於克莉絲汀的經營狀況並不差,現金可以較快積累,但如此急切的淘空金庫,明顯是有其他私人的資金用途,克莉絲汀現金高於按金1億,估計未來的經營現金流有1億,再抽走1.3億後,克莉絲汀的淨現金會在7000萬左右,而7000萬應是其最低營運資金的界線,如果克莉絲汀要增加派息至正常水平,起碼要等多一年等佢抽完脂而淨現金佢超過7000萬先,由於自有並不受限制的資金不多,只可以自然增長,不可能收購同大搞
要當初是投機博佢盈利反轉的話,作戰已經失敗左
營業額增加少少,代表包賣多左(或加價或縮水),毛利率持平,代表未被認為變得比之前更難食,銷量保持平穩,亦冇乜流失
賣餅卡相信不會計入營業額的,因為計入營業額而不產生面粉成本,毛利率會大升,反之兌餅卡消耗面粉而不產生營業額也是問題,因此營業額反映實際運作情況
那麼餅卡計入邊度最好?似乎計左入分銷同銷售開支,同人工廣告舖租混在一齊,於是某些埋由出現退卡潮,也能以租金人工廣告忽悠過去,又發現開餅店的又一好處了(至於買卡潮則會令分銷同銷售開支異常的低甚至負支出)
總體而言,資產負債表上沒有明顯的大缺陷,營業額同固定資產的增加也算成比例,銷售冇惡化,只是支出有問題
上市前分銷同銷售開支異常低的時段內,分銷同銷售開支佔營業額1/3,而上市後異常高的時段內,比例是1/2,那麼折衷的取1/2.5為正常,今年上半年盈利會有2000幾萬,全年盈利5,6千萬,以現家的估值媽媽DAY,不過味皇依然打算長期持有
以上分析是基於上市的動機而採用陰毛論形式的分析,如果管理層不是味皇想像中的暗屬性生物,那麼假設就會不成立,分析就會從根本上出現謬誤,所以此分析結果具有明顯的風險,不宜盡信

2013年8月28日 星期三

電腦網業績

營業額同毛利成正比例成長,代表行業冇惡化,對外做得幾好
宣傳開支大增,估計係請人飲酒同叫雞送禮的支出多左,初步判斷係同女性網搵馬伕
請多左百幾人,行政支出反而減少,說明刻薄員工更加嚴重,估計係減長工增散工,用私家平板作文,減少紙張使用之類
總體來說,增長不太滿意
現金減少,是由於買樓用左6000幾萬,將來租金支出或會再減少,但折舊上升中和返盈利增長,總體會改善現金流
有億幾現金做左定期,說明電腦網不但不缺營業資金,而且仲閒置不少,味而且皇認為大增的宣傳開支未必會長期都有,因此派息比率應可維持
雖然應收賬的增幅非常礙眼,但電腦網的客戶都是牌子,走數機會不高
同上年持平的已付稅款,說明電腦網冇作大亦冇隱瞞
汽車網增長兩成,由於車廠數量不會突然增加減少,因此是廣告加價,當中並不會增加成本,車廠同汽車網的談判地位處於劣勢,所以汽車網仲有加價能力
電腦網略為下跌,估計係由於版面由電腦配件主導改為手機主導的原因,競爭極為激烈而需打廣告的電腦零件行業日漸式微,廠商的數量減少,而新興的平板用手機廠商數量較少,亦不能拆開逐個零件銷售,令廣告面積變大同數量下降,且廠商變少更易形成潛規則,估計電腦網會日漸衰落
女性網家居網春子網都在建設階段,搵新客的支出多數會出係呢度
遊戲網的目的係用黎洗腦叫人升級電腦的,即系為電腦網服務的子網,由於台式機行業式微,不排除過兩年就摺埋,或者改為收購電玩巴士之類的東西
之前傳過的地產網估計在市道好轉之前是不會搞的,或者直接收購58同城仲快趣
感覺上主力的幾個網似佢求人多過人地搵上門,主要是競爭的激烈程度比不上以前的電腦網,穩定性可能差左,盈利波幅增大
按現時表現,年尾派息多1仙至仙半
傳澳州有公司想收購佢,可能性不大,因為一向做門戶網站都不易成功,同外國網亦無整合作用,外國細公司如果不是近期IPO過亦不會有錢收購,如大公司身極有米,想必看不起呢類細公司,反而阿里同騰訊就有會有D機會收購,特別係阿里會有協同效應,可以超連結去淘寶,淘寶又可以超連結番去佢D評測文,雖然直接比服務費都可以做到呢個效果
如果派息2亳的話,用4-5厘計算估值在4-5蚊,水位不是太多,增長就一定有的,長揸冇問題,好似味皇自已都用按揭套佢息,萬一真係有人肯出5個幾收購的話,轉去新意網都得

廈門港業績

雖然營業額如預料般大升,但盈利結果冇升到,10厘股今年就冇可能了
看其存貨,大增一倍,做港口邊會有存貨?一睇就知炒石材果PART炒燶左,壓左大批貨,一粒老鼠咁大的屎整臭成鍋粥,事實上佢炒燶唔止一次了,如同南粵物流一樣
由於盈利數字未顯示出足夠的損失,而只列為應收款,因此爛帳的機會不低,而且規模過億
呢類貿易業務存在,可能是因此油水充足又易撈,阿爺公司的上線下線係私人公司,你懂的,物流公司同鍊鋼公司好似呢種傾向特別嚴重
如拋開呢點,佢港口本業方面就相當完善,而且年內有多間子公司開業,由於都是港口同陸運,不易損失,又可產生穩定收益
兩者結合,廈門港可能變得規模宏大,財政建康,但表現虧損,停止派息,如果不採用一次虧損,那麼在存貨下降前會盈利停滯好幾年,個當然這只是說可能性
例如某動作演員的真實身份是完成度極高的人型自走阿姆斯特朗旋風噴射阿姆斯特朗砲,但如果我們適當地無視一些部位,腦補切除掉,只視之為愛情動作演員,或許會順眼番少少
由於是以港口股為目的而買入,估值亦足夠地平,所以個人變得可以忍受

2013年8月18日 星期日

10年半新股

舊文09年半新股http://realblog.zkiz.com/lgaim/30494,當時寫的是排除壞股找當中的好股,當時背景審查排除的包括:
海峽石油852  興業太陽能750  瑞金246  錦勝794  詩天1008  忠旺1333 旭光67  中金再生773  興利396   秦發866  琥珀90  志高449  承達2288  奧思知8325  金隅2009  中國生命8296  現代傳播72  中國全通663  中國中冶1618  利郎1234  永恆8351  澳優1717  江晨8305  永利1128  神冠829  寶龍1238  卡姆丹克712   恆大3333   高精密591  通天389   花樣年1777   中國森林930  富通465  佳兆業1638   春天百貨331  幻音8248  摩比947  勝利管道1080  粟米油1006  華昱1823  洪良946  星亮955  木匠837 
62隻股當中排除左42隻,不合格率68%頗高,今日來看,死得幾勻循

如果發現疑似GA數股,我們應該用甚麼取態呢?採取"唔通係阿姆斯特朗旋風噴射阿姆斯特朗砲嗎?完成求相當高呢"的無所謂態度,又或者使出艦長修正拳海扁大股東"連我爸爸也沒有打過我的說"的採取抵制態度?

今次同上次相反,排除過關的股找當中的GA數股,讀者的取態隨意就好

10年上市的股包括
俄鋁486 南戈壁1878 美克953 中駿1966 思嘉1863 珠江石化1938 煤機1683 瑞年2010 Z-Obee948 匯銀1280 中升881 飛克1998 遠東830 福和923 敏華1999 置富778 昂納877 L'Occitane973 朗生503 雷士2222 保誠2378 優源2268 泰坦2188 直通8337 泰豐873 卓亞8295 海東青2228 聯塑2128 創生325 超威951 華耐1020  國泰君安1788 齊合976 康守1019  天山2118 智能交通1900 農行1288 敏達936 星謙640 西水2233 耀才1428 廣汽2238 進業8356 三江2198 美即1633 暢豐1039 微創853 康哲867 博士蛙1698 碧生源926 內飾8321 桑德967 福源1682 海豐1308 麥斯達1021 創益2468 融創1918 金風2208 榮豐3683 永暉1733 麗悅2266 MM975 新天地956 賽晶580 富譽8269 博耳1685 鐵江1029 華地1700 新城鎮1278 四環460 環乳1007 友邦1299 雅士利1230 長興238 天侖1600 理士842 泓淋1087 歲寶312 大錳1091 熔盛1101 信貸8207 好孩子1086 金活1110 金滿堂8312 牧業1117 大明1090 金2099 十方1831 新源1048 賽得利1768 紛美468 正通1728 MI1555 世達1282 重銀3618 合生元1112大唐新1798 百富327 狗糧940 中聯1157 亨鑫1085 
味皇認為,GA數股就像遺傳病一樣,只要發現有發病基因,就很大機會發作,而搵發病基因甚至可以在未上市時睇招股書第2頁已經發現,因此要味皇現在就找出今年甚至明年上市的股票是否老十股都其實也不是難事,有發病基因就會發作,不管你信不信,反正我就信了,讀者像是看見萌物"長得那麼可愛,一定是男孩子"的抵觸,還是"只要可愛就算是男孩子也没關係"的接受,味皇也管不了,不過就現實來說,看起來萌的人型物體一般都是整過容的人造人

律師, 核數師,保薦人,味皇簡單地分為2類,澳門系,馬會系,為簡化說明,代號設為12
澳門系指利用澳門的人脈上市,被上市的原因是因為澳門,而公司的人員有高機率反覆向澳門交稅,所以叫澳門系
馬會系指利用功能組別的人脈上市,由於多是馬主,所以叫馬會系,由於香港皇帝因XX某前高官而被趕出澳門,此系勢力大不如前,上市原因是單純的套現
也有些獨立人士,有各自的自的而找上投資銀行,主動上市集資,這部分是我們可以考慮購買的部分,但不是本文的目的
有些味皇未能確定關係,會留空,始終我不是萬能的
獨立核數師的信任度羅咸兵>安永>畢馬威>信永中和>德勤

第一波用南商的資料,可以查到現時的律師同核數師http://boc.quotepower.com/web/bochk/stocks_profile_corpinfo.jsp?lang=zh_TW&domain=NCBHK&rand=1632053162&lastLevel1Name=nav_stocks&lastStock=
保薦人要逐一在港交所查,功夫極多,留留最後先做

                           律師  核數  保薦          總結
俄鋁486               2                                   2                             
南戈壁1878                                                                                      
美克953                                                                         
中駿1966             1                                   1                            
思嘉1863                                                                           
珠江石化1938                                                                      
煤機1683            無資料                                                                
瑞年2010                                                                              
Z-Obee948           2       2                        2                               
匯銀1280                                                                              
中升881                                                                            
飛克1998                                                                            
遠東830                                                                              
福和923                                                                              
敏華1999                                                                              
置富778                                                                              
昂納877                                                                              
L'Occitane973                                                                              
朗生503                          2                        2                           
雷士2222                                                                              
保誠2378                                                                              
優源2268                                                                              
泰坦2188              1                                  1                              
直通8337                                                                              
泰豐873                                                                              
卓亞8295                                                                               
海東青2228                    2                         2                                 
 聯塑2128                                                                               
創生325           無資料                                                                    
超威951                                                                               
華耐1020              1                                   1                              
 國泰君安1788                                                                               
齊合976                                                                               
康守1019                                                                                
天山2118             2                                    2                              
智能交通1900                                                                               
農行1288                                                                               
敏達936                           2                        2                            
星謙640                2                                   2                            
西水2233                                                                               
耀才1428              2                                   2                             
廣汽2238                                                                               
進業8356              2        1                         1                                
三江2198              1                                   1                               
美即1633              1                                   1                              
暢豐1039              2                                   2                              
微創853                                                                               
康哲867                                                                               
博士蛙1698                    1                         1                                 
碧生源926                                                                               
內飾8321                         1                        1                             
桑德967                                                                              
福源1682              1                                   1                            
海豐1308              2                                   2                            
麥斯達1021                                                                               
創益2468                                                                               
融創1918              2                                   2                             
金風2208                                                                               
榮豐3683                                                                               
永暉1733                                                                              
麗悅2266                                                                               
MM975                                                                               
新天地956                                                                               
賽晶580                                                                               
富譽8269                      2                          2                               
博耳1685                                                                               
鐵江1029                                                                               
華地1700                                                                               
新城鎮1278                                                                               
四環460                                                                               
環乳1007                                                                               
友邦1299                                                                               
雅士利1230                                                                               
長興238                                                                               
天侖1600                                                                               
理士842                                                                              
泓淋1087                                                                               
歲寶312                                                                               
大錳1091                                                                               
熔盛1101                                                                               
信貸8207              2                                    2                             
好孩子1086          2                                    2                                
金活1110                           1                       1                            
金滿堂8312                       1                       1                                 
牧業1117                                                                               
大明1090                                                                               
金2099                                                                               
十方1831                                                                               
新源1048                                                                               
賽得利1768                                                                              
紛美468                                                                               
正通1728              1                                    1                             
MI1555                                                                               
世達1282             2                                      2                            
重銀3618                                                                               
合生元1112                                                                              
大唐新1798                                                                               
百富327                                                                               
狗糧940                                                                               
中聯1157                                                                               
亨鑫1085                                                                               


續上一篇,加埋保薦人
                           律師  核數  保薦          總結
俄鋁486               2                                   2                             
南戈壁1878                                                                                   
美克953                                   1               1                       
中駿1966             1                 2                1                            
思嘉1863                                                                           
珠江石化1938                                                                      
煤機1683            無資料                                                                
瑞年2010                                                                              
Z-Obee948           2       2       1               1                               
匯銀1280                                 2               2                            
中升881                                                                            
飛克1998                                                                            
遠東830                                                                              
福和923                                                                              
敏華1999                                  2             2                               
置富778                                                                              
昂納877                                    2              2                          
L'Occitane973                                                                              
朗生503                          2                        2                           
雷士2222                                                                              
保誠2378                                                                              
優源2268                                                                              
泰坦2188              1                  1              1                              
直通8337                                                                              
泰豐873                                     1              1                          
卓亞8295                                   1              1                               
海東青2228                    2                         2                                 
 聯塑2128                                                                               
創生325           無資料                                                                    
超威951                                      2             2                           
華耐1020              1                                   1                              
國泰君安1788                                                                               
齊合976                                                                               
康宏1019                                   1              1                                
天山2118             2                                    2                              
智能交通1900                                                                               
農行1288                                                                               
敏達936                           2         1             1                            
星謙640                2                    1             1                            
西水2233                                                                               
耀才1428              2                                   2                             
廣汽2238                                                                               
進業8356              2        1          1             1                                
三江2198              1                                   1                               
美即1633              1                                   1                              
暢豐1039              2                                   2                              
微創853                                                                               
康哲867                                                                               
博士蛙1698                    1                         1                                 
碧生源926                                                                               
內飾8321                         1         1             1                             
桑德967                                                                              
福源1682              1                    1             1                            
海豐1308              2                                   2                            
麥斯達1021                                                                               
創益2468                                                                               
融創1918              2                                   2                             
金風2208                                                                               
榮豐3683                                                                               
永暉1733                                                                              
麗悅2266                                                                               
MM975                                                                               
新天地956                                 2             2                                 
賽晶580                                                                               
富譽8269                      2           1            1                               
博耳1685                                                                               
鐵江1029                                                                               
華地1700                                                                               
新城鎮1278                                                                               
四環460                                                                               
環乳1007                                  2              2                               
友邦1299                                                                               
雅士利1230                                                                               
長興238                                    2              2                             
天侖1600                                                                               
理士842                                                                              
泓淋1087                                                                               
歲寶312                                    2              2                             
大錳1091                                                                               
熔盛1101                                                                               
信貸8207              2                                    2                             
好孩子1086          2                                    2                                
金活1110                         1                        1                            
金滿堂8312                     1        1              1                                 
牧業1117                                                                               
大明1090                                                                               
金2099                                                                               
十方1831                                     2            2                              
新源1048                                     1            1                               
賽得利1768                                                                              
紛美468                                                                               
正通1728              1                                    1                             
MI1555                                                                               
世達1282             2                                      2                            
重銀3618                                                                               
合生元1112                                                                              
大唐新1798                                                                               
百富327                                                                               
狗糧940                                       2              2                          
中聯1157                                                                               
亨鑫1085                                     1              1               

確認為澳門系的22間,馬會系的21間,排除率率左總數的43%,以上分析完全不涉及財務報表,僅僅涉及招股書的封面,要說的話類似卡睇面相一樣的東西,為針對"上市前"的分析,信則冇,不信則無,總之這類股不會在味皇的投資組合上再出現

澳門系由於涉及武裝力量,因此節操無下限,同時由於公司人員嗜好的問題,任何時候都會有抽資的需求,在抽資同時又要維持控制權,就會併發出無盡的創意,推動金融創新,澳門系可以理解為給紙皮餡的包子中加入金坷拉,由內在出發,至於活動範圍一般在方向報財經最中間化名果頁,生果冇睇過唔知
馬會系由於都是有頭有面的人,非常注重本人聲譽,即使作惡也會使用代理人,絕不輕易露出痛腳,因此直接出假數的機會不大,但由於上市目的是套現,因此只要有好價,就會有重復套現的傾向,更多時候是人為的制造好價,會大量使用洗腦方法,由於人員熱衷資本操作,因此不會太注重實務,馬會系可以理解為給饅頭一樣的包子打上金坷拉的廣告,由外在出,至於發活動範圍一般在方向報財經少顏色一格格實名果頁